Tracking polls have been running strongly in Obama’s favor for over a week now but these paragraphs from today’s Rasmussen Poll results page are very, very good news. (Today’s Rasmussen results O 51- M44 and Rasmussen tends to have a Republican tilt.)
Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant–game-changing—event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough.